We are now in the second half of July 2010 and the busy spring market for real estate is over.  In fact the slowdown occurred early with statistics showing reduced sales for June. It had been busy all through Fall and Winter and people have been nervous entering summer in anticipation of HST and higher interest rates.  Banks  made small downward adjustments in long term rates but Canada’s official interest rate rose .25% in June and another .25% on July 20.  That should maintain a degree of market interest as people try to buy while they can get low interest mortgages.  The major banks began to raise longer term mortgage rates during the last week of March and again in mid April as the long term bond rate went up due to speculation of higher rates coming.  Most people were expecting that the official Bank of Canada interest rate would begin to rise June 1st and soon after but these were small adjustments from a rate close to zero.  There is good reason to hold rates low for now when problems in Europe and concern over restraint in China have hurt the Canadian dollar and commodity prices for minerals and oil which are so important to Canada’s economic performance.  This continuing world recession will slow pressure for rate increases in Canada. High interest rates would help raise the Canadian dollar above the US dollar and hurt the Canadian manufacturing sector which is the main part of Ontario’s economy.  With oil prices generally on the rise and concerns about the danger of offshore drilling in the US, we can expect the Canadian dollar to rise to dangerous levels due to higher valuation of Canadian tar sands oil reserves even without an interest rate increase over the next several months. Much of the real estate activity has been driven by fear of more increases in interest rates.  People want to lock into a long term mortgage while rates are still fairly low.

The real estate market was hot in our local areas of Pickering, Ajax and Whitby and other popular places in the City of Toronto.  The mild weather and absence of snow in Southern Ontario certainly helped keep the market alive in the winter and give an early start to the cottage market.  This busy winter market was unprecedented and the big question now is what will happen after the current market summer slow down.  Recent developments have shown that the economic crisis is far from over and unemployment is a very serious concern and could get worse so the recovery is a fragile one.   July 9th statistics gave a false positive reading to employment in Ontario by including temporary jobs created by the G8 and G20 meetings and the pre-HST boom. While technically the recession was over by the end of 2009 the recovery remains questionable. There is a huge Government deficit both Federal and Provincial which will take many years or major Government spending cutbacks to repay once the effort is made. Right now interest rates remain at historic lows and incentives for first time buyers have brought new buyers to the real estate market. From September 2008 there was a severe slow down in real estate sales which continued until about May in the spring of 2009. There was a rush to be ahead of the Ontario HST which adds 8% provincial sales tax to the GST of new home purchases (over $400,000), all real estate commissions and all legal fees which started in July 2010.  Utility and fuel costs have risen because of the HST. Higher taxes associated with home ownership, purchase and sale have already slowed the market. The 905, 519 and 705 areas are significantly benefiting from the City of Toronto’s Land Transfer Tax which adds considerable cost to a home purchase in Toronto  (except for first time buyers).
The auto sector is doing reasonably well now and jobs have been preserved at GM and Chrysler who were in bankruptcy situations. Ford has remained strong, their sales are solid and they are keeping most Ontario plants open. In Oshawa people at GM are working overtime and extra shifts to build new Camaros.  Impala production in Oshawa has been renewed along with new Cadillac models and the made in Oshawa Camaro continues to be produced below demand levels.  GM is benefiting greatly from increased sales in the growing market of China. Toyota’s vehicle problems have helped GM as well and GM is now actually making a profit.  Even if there are a few small increases in mortgage rates the real estate market in Ontario is likely to continue in its strength.  The February 16 announcement by Canada’s Finance Minister Jim Flaherty of tighter rules for qualification for an insured high ratio mortgage have made a greater than originally expected impact on the market and not just by keeping borderline qualified buyers out of the market. With the rise in long term interest rates the new rules force home buyers to qualify for a mortgage at the high 5 year posted fixed rate even if they are selecting a discount, variable or lower short term rate. Many who can easily afford to buy a home are not qualifying because of the requirement that they qualify for the highest rate mortgage now offered.  All of these factors combined should lead to a stable but slow market for the remainder of 2010 and into 2011. Right now it is definitely a buyers’ market.

Condominium sales remain strong and fear of there being too many new ones being built is unfounded as condominiums reflect a lifestyle change which is beginning to extend to the baby boomers. There has been little activity in the cottage market for two seasons but we predict a busier cottage season this year but no boom.  Lower priced cottages have been selling as have those with price drops.  Reasonable pricing is the key as the market has many cottage options in Ontario with a wide range of prices. The best cottage investments would be properties close to the GTA where the drive is not too far.  Buyers for all types of properties need to be cautious of overpaying and need to think of the future when they may have to renew large mortgages at a higher interest rate.

I predict that the Ontario, Canada real estate market will remain slightly positive through 2011 despite the HST and a rise in interest rates.  Canadians always seem to adjust quickly to new taxes. I do expect a slowdown but no “crash”. Most home buyers now are locking into longer term mortgage rates that are much higher than short term rates.  I believe you will save if you get a lower variable rate now as I predict any rise in rates will not be as large as the current spread between long term and variable rates. What you do depends on your willingness to take risk and how important certainty is to your budgeting.

Miskin Law Offices are ready to assist you in home sales, purchase and mortgaging from our conveniently located Whitby and Peterborough locations. We handle the legal work and help you make decisions at no extra cost if you seek our advice. Our main office in downtown Whitby on Brock St. just north of Mary St. has free parking.  Our Peterborough office near the Lift Lock, in Time Square at Hunter and Armour also has free parking for our clients.   Both Murray Miskin and our main real estate staff member, law clerk Arlene Nicholson, now live in Peterborough and are regularly at the Peterborough office in addition to being in Whitby most days. We will accommodate your needs when it is time to come in for your real estate transaction. Our fees are highly competitive and we are happy to explain them to you. Our standard fee is presently $650 on a purchase and $550 on a sale (plus GST and expenses).   We do not recommend closing a purchase and sale on the same day.  You will save much trouble plus moving costs if you close your purchase ahead of your sale. Bridge financing is very inexpensive too.  Beware lawyers who quote a fixed price because there are almost always extra costs involved in the form of expenses such as registration charges and taxes. Almost always our price will be lower or we will agree to match the advertised fixed or “all inclusive” price of other lawyers. Very few lawyers can beat our personal service and reasonable cost for the legal work involved in real estate transactions. As part of our service we will review an offer before it is signed or made firm,  for our clients’ protection with no extra charge. Call Arlene at our office, Extension 119, with your questions.

By definition an umpire is an arbitrator

Murray Miskin has been the principal trainer of non-labour arbitrators in Ontario, Canada since 1985. He teaches a 40 hour course certified by the ADR Institute of Ontario which has been the standard for qualification of arbitrators in this province. The course is usually taught with week night evening classes in Toronto. The last course began April 22, 2008 and ended on June 3rd, 2008. Registration had been open for the next course which was scheduled to take place in early 2009 but the course has continued to be postponed due to Nancy Miskin’s health issues. There was no 2009 course and the next course will likely be in spring 2011 but is not scheduled. We will post full details and open registration at this site once the course dates are set.

FAQs answered: You do not need to be a lawyer or have any pre-requisite training to take this course, it is not required that you attend every class to pass the course but you should not miss a weekend class, the content is applicable outside Ontario but is mostly based on Ontario laws which are similar to those of other Canadian jurisdictions, payment of the full balance of course fee need not be made at the time of registration and payment arrangements can be made, access to classes is easy by car or subway, no this is not labour arbitration but it will be discussed, yes there is work for Arbitrators, and no there is not much homework or requirement to spend much time working on the course outside of classes. It is a 40 hour course meeting Ontario and national standards for arbitrator certification. An ADR Institute Certificate is provided to each student after graduation with no additional charge.

introduction:

The Comprehensive Arbitration Training Course as taught by Murray Miskin is the standard in Ontario for non-labour Arbitrator training. The course began in January 1985 organized by the University of Toronto School of Continuing Studies and the Arbitrators’ Institute of Ontario. That organization then consisted mainly of engineers and others involved in the construction industry. The course originally was called Arbitration II and it was an advanced course of 25 hours instruction taught by Murray Miskin and offered to lawyers and experienced non-lawyer arbitrators. Others who wanted to take the course were required to take an introductory course of 25 hours instruction taught by Howard Levitt and later by Genevieve Chornenki called Arbitration I which provided basic legal and arbitration background. Arbitration II was taught by Murray Miskin until the spring of 1997 and was the course seen as qualifying persons to act as arbitrators in Ontario. That course was accepted in the late 1980’s as the Canadian model for such training. In 1997 the Institute which had grown much larger and become the Arbitration and Mediation Institute of Ontario changed the course structure to be more like the structure of its Mediator training with more practical exercises and small group activities. Murray Miskin continued teaching the new combined 40 hour course which replaced both Arbitration I and II. As the course included the Arbitration I requirements there was no set prerequisite for entry. This course attempts to strike a delicate balance between the needs of lawyers training to be arbitrators or counsel at arbitration and those of other professionals wanting arbitration training who also require legal procedure background that most lawyers already possess. Even experienced litigation lawyers taking the course have commented positively on their learning experience in legal procedure and the benefits of discussion of issues by a group which includes both legal and non-legal perspectives. The course has been enriched by the added small group exercises in negotiation of arbitration agreements, challenging potential bias in an arbitrator and strategizing on a party’s behalf. The process of making a decision and backing it up with reasons is carefully explained. The highlight of the course continues to be a full arbitration hearing of a fire insurance claim defended on the basis of possible arson by the factory owner. The Arbitration and Mediation Institute changed its name to the ADR Institute of Ontario a few years ago and continues its approval and certification of this course.

COURSE REQUIREMENTS – IS THIS ARBITRATION COURSE FOR YOU?

There is no specific pre-requisite for taking this course. Usually almost half of the students are lawyers with most of the rest being professionals or business people. Many students are accountants, engineers, architects or real estate brokers and appraisers. Many students are people who have retired or hope to retire but still earn good income from occasional work where they can apply the skills and experiences developed in their careers. Some of our students have been able to obtain jobs and even judicial appointments with this course being a qualifying factor. Many people are looking for a career change and arbitration may be a path to take if you have the right background or contacts to give you a reasonable chance of being selected as arbitrator Construction disputes are generally resolved by arbitration rather than court as are commercial lease renewal rent and other disputes. Ontario’s new condominium law took away the right to sue for disputes so that if mediation can not settle a dispute arbitration is the next step. There are many other areas where arbitration is becoming the primary method of resolving disputes which can not settle by mediation or other means. Please call directly to Murray Miskin at 905-428-8000 Extension 111 to discuss whether the course is right for you. The course is also of great assistance as a skill and confidence builder for non-lawyer Mediators who require more legal training. For mediators who are not lawyers the course gives the legal background and understanding of civil justice geared to the ADR process which is required to become a roster mediator of the Ontario Courts. Special attention is given to the Courts of Justice Act and the Rules of Civil Procedure. Lawyers benefit by gaining an understanding of how non-lawyers deal with legal issues and situations which makes them better communicators. The classes, which mix lawyers and non-lawyers and people from vastly different backgrounds as students, challenges each student to take a different approach than they normally do in dealing with others.